That's 10 Down, Four To Go

The last month of college football's regular season is upon us and what we know now is little compared to what we will know about the big picture the first Sunday in December. There has been plenty of talk about how strong conferences are on the message boards, mostly related to how strong the Big East is this year. Has the SEC lost it's perch as the nation's strongest conference? See, this is where I like the computer aspect of the BCS. We are biased, no if ands or buts. The computer remains as objective as what it was programmed to spit out. The BCS computers heavily favored Louisville over West Virginia, and they were right. Sagarin has Louisville at #4 for his BCS ranking this week and Rutgers at #12. Back to conferences, Sagarin has the Pac-10 at #1, Big East at #2, SEC at #3, Big Ten at #4, ACC at #5, Big 12 at #6. I think that most people look at one and two and do a double take, but, at least for #1, it's right. Looking at just this season, the Pac-10 is stacked. There is no clear cut leader. Two teams will probably make the BCS and the conference has five legitimate top 25 teams. I'd slide the Big East down to 4th, and move the SEC and Big Ten up one. The SEC West is not as good this year, Arkansas leads it, this year. Saying the SEC is off is the same as saying a category 3 hurricane is better than a category 4, it still will wallop most things. The Big 10 is four teams deep, sorry Iowa. The Big East is growing. They were the worst BCS conference, now they move up to 4th. A Rutgers upset tonight and Sagarin's #2 rating looks much more realistic. The ACC and Big 12 are having off years. The Big 12 is too unbalanced to the South, while the ACC really is weak. Onto the games: Louisville at Rutgers- For the first time since the Giants left the Yale Bowl after the 1975 season, they are the co-headliner in the State of New Jersey, only because the Bears are in town. Think of it. A BCS playoff game in New Jersey. They are thinking of digging up Hoffa to watch the game. (Not really) We know how good Louisville is, they pasted West Virginia last week. The big game nerves are down a bit. They can control how they want to run their offense and Brian Brohm's thumb looks fully healed. They are also the road team. This is the magic of college football. Rutgers, (Rutgers?!),will have a huge home field advantage simply because hey have never played a game with such high stakes. They can run well with Ray Rice and they might have the Big East's best defense. Remember, they shut out Navy. I see two outcomes ere. Rutgers wins real close or Louisville blows them out. My heart is for Rutgers, but my head says Louisville. Uncle Mo is on the Cardinals side and coming off that huge win makes them the battle tested team. Cards by 10. Tennessee at ArkansasWhen you looked at the pre-season schedule, did you circle this as a huge game? Me either. Erk Ainge is dinged up, while Arkansas has apparently made the strange decision to change quarterbacks during the season and start Casey Dick over ballyhooed freshman Mitch Mustain. (Insert you favorite Chris joke here.) Tennessee should win, but if Ainge misses a chunk of the game, the Vols, while having a very good back up, have to use that back up in a hostile enviroment. Arkansas is for real. They are the cream of he west and should win an SEC blowout, by 3. Oregon at USC- The Ducks have a chance to avenge their poorly played game at Cal in Los Angeles by beating Southern Cal. Meanwhile, Southern Cal took Stanford behind the woodshed, 42-0, after losing to Oregon State. Frankly, I'd be surprised i this game is even close. While 'SC has had some close calls in the past, the loss to the Beavers was a big hit to their pride. Pete Carroll will have his team ready. They may not be Glendale bound this year, but Southern Cal continues to be the real deal. Cal awaits for the Rose Bowl. SC by 7. Nebraska at Texas A&M- A bigger game for the Cornhuskers. They can clinch the North, I think, with a win. Beating a Big 12 South team on the road is a huge confidnce builder as they know that Texas waits in Kansas City. This Nebraska team is good. The last time I went against the Aggies, they won in a blowout. They have been the pleasant surprise in the Big 12 this season and would probably have won the North. They are good on both sides of the ball, and have home field. All important in November. I'm reminded that Nebraska nearly beat Texas at home, in the snow. While the Aggies are good, Nebraska is better in what should be an entertaining game. Huskers by 4. Wake Forest at Florida State- Go Christmas shopping. Wake wins. Drew Weatherford has been benched and Wake is winning on divine intervention. Florida at South Carolina- Hmm, playing at the Ol' Ball Coach's new house should be intriguing to say the least. Of what's left of the Gators schedule, this is the trap game. You would have to think that Florida is tired. They certainly are playing like it. With the exception of a botched punt at Auburn, they have passed their combined calculus and physics exam. South Carolina awaits in a game that probably means more for the boosters than the players. Don't think they aren't drooling to wreck this party. Florida needs to stop the flood of stupid penalties, and when they do bring Tebow out, mix it up and pass. Florida remains my darkhorse BCS favorite. They win a squeaker by 2.