This will be the scene in Happy Valley when the Wolverines come to town
It has been 10 years since Joe Paterno and the Penn State Nittany Lions have tasted victory against Michigan, and surprisingly only one of their wins over Michigan has happened in Beaver Stadium. Last year the Wolverines ended any ideas Penn State had of crashing the BCS Championship game when Chad Henne hit Mario Manningham in the final seconds to seal the victory. There is nothing that Penn State's fans (or team for that matter) want more than to end Michigan's chances to play in the National Title game on Saturday Night.
It's been a rough road for the Lions, losing two of their first four games to opponents that were at the time ranked in the Top 5. They have shown signs of brillance during those games, but other times (1st half vs Minnesota, 4th qtr vs Ohio State) it seems they have a long way to go to be a top tier team. Michigan on the other hand gets better each week and I am not alone on the ITB staff in thinking that this might be the best overall team in the country. Although this week they are without their star WR in Manningham who has accounted for over 50% of the team's TD catches. Also Lloyd Carr has been pretty mum about the injury surrounding Michael Hart that sidelined him against Michigan State.
What the Nittany Lions need to do to win. - First and foremost they must keep the game close in the beginning and keep the crowd in the game. From my estimates there will be 111,000 people at the game and Troy Smith even mentioned last year how difficult it was to call plays with the noise of the crowd. The Lions need to jump out on Michigan early. Surprisingly the Wolverines have yet to be behind in any of their games this year. They must also find a way to run the ball against a defense that only gives up 40 ypg on the ground. Keep giving the ball to Tony Hunt, he seems to get better as the game goes on by wearing out teams with his bruising running style.
Anthony Morelli must play a near perfect game and take what the defense gives him. Spread the ball around to their talented wide receivers and tight end. Keep the Wolverines guess and not become predictable. On the defense of side of the ball they need to pressure Henne. They didn't pressure Quinn and he had a field day, but when they pressured Troy Smith he made mistakes. With Manningham out I believe they need to man up and shut down on Breaston and the other wide recievers with Justin King and Tony Davis and they will have to rely on Michael Hart a little more where their strength is. Penn State, like Michigan is good against the run only giving up 70 ypg.
Finally Penn State needs to score in the red zone. They are the worst in the Big Ten with this stat. Special Team woes are a big reason why this number is so low. Kevin Kelly and the holder need to be on the same page because chances for points against the Wolverines don't come often and they have to capitalize in the red zone.
How Michigan will win - This is pretty simple, just play their style of football and not let Penn State dictate the flow. The Wolverines have one of the best offensive lines in the country and use them to make room for Michael Hart to run free. If they establish a strong running game they can control the clock and dictate the pace of the game. A wide receiver needs to step up, mainly the senior Steve Breaston. Breaston needs to show some leadership and make the key plays at critical times to make up for the absence of Manningham.
On Defense the Wolverines need to continue to shut down the run to make Penn State become a one dimensional passing team. Make Anthony Moreeli beat you throwing the ball. He was one heck of an arm, but has yet to show that he has what it takes to put the team on his shoulders and carry them to victory.
I will leave my prediction out of this but if you would like to know what I predicted for this game please listen to the
podcast. Chris and I broke this game down and gave our predictions.
